With Marco Rubio on the rise, what is John Kasich's path in New Hampshire?

John Kasich

Ohio Gov. John Kasich speaks on his campaign bus last month in Bow, N.H.

(Charles Krupa, The Associated Press)

CLEVELAND, Ohio - Ohio Gov. John Kasich wants to be "a story" coming out of next week's New Hampshire primary. What that means, he and his advisers won't say.

But consider the results from Monday's Republican presidential caucuses in Iowa.

Ted Cruz is a story. Not only did he win, he took down Donald Trump. The Texas senator is emerging as the best hope for anti-establishment conservatives.

Marco Rubio is a story, too. He nearly beat Trump. More than that, he beat expectations. He heads to New Hampshire with momentum and a conventional wisdom that now pegs him as the mainstream candidate most likely to succeed.

Rubio's finish prompted some tough contrasts Tuesday from John Weaver, the Kasich campaign's chief strategist. In a conference call with reporters, Weaver rejected the notion that Rubio's big night in Iowa elevates him in the New Hampshire race.

"There's not a lot of historical evidence that a larger-than-expected third- or fourth-place finish in Iowa is going to dramatically change the landscape here," Weaver said.

The Florida senator, he added, is a "unique political talent," but one who hasn't put in the amount of work Kasich and other establishment contenders have in the Granite State.

Yet Weaver also telegraphed what the next six days will sound like as Kasich, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush each try to stay or pull ahead of Rubio. Asked how he would draw contrasts, Weaver was blunt.

"That's fairly easy," he said. "The governor has a record. Senator Rubio does not."

So what would a win look like for Team Kasich? Weaver ducked.

"I'm not going to play that game so much. The people on this call will help determine what that is," he said. "We need to be a significant part of the story coming out of New Hampshire and heading into South Carolina," which holds its primary Feb. 20.

It's tempting to say Kasich must either win New Hampshire - an outcome no poll has come close to predicting - or emerge as the biggest surprise. But while in Iowa it was clear that Rubio was that surprise, in New Hampshire there could be at least three candidates desperate to find encouragement from less-than-ideal results.

In other words, it might not be immediately obvious if Kasich is "a story."

Let's look at the potential paths forward for Kasich - and the paths back to Columbus.

Path 1: Win.

The easiest and unlikeliest scenario. Maybe Trump's Iowa collapse carries over and scatters his supporters to other candidates. But while voters who like both Kasich and Trump exist, they probably don't exist in large enough quantities for Kasich to win.

Kasich certainly has put himself in a strong position. He has campaigned in New Hampshire repeatedly and has a large paid staff on the ground. Maybe if his rivals ignore him this week and gang up on Rubio, Kasich will have an opening for an upset. Again, this is unlikely. But it would leave no doubt that Kasich is a serious contender.

Path 2: Finish first in the establishment lane.

This is not about second place. Sure, Kasich and his advisers love the polls that put him there. But they are being careful not to set expectations for such a finish.

Say Trump wins, Cruz is runner-up and Kasich finishes third. That would allow Kasich to argue that it's time for Republicans fearful of Trump and Cruz to rally around him.

On the other hand, what good is second place for Kasich if it's Rubio who finishes first? The key to this path is beating Rubio. If Kasich wants to come out of New Hampshire as the candidate with momentum, he's going to have to steal it from the guy who had it last.

Path 3: Fourth place.

It's hard enough to imagine three, let alone four, tickets out of New Hampshire. So if Kasich lands in fourth next Tuesday, there will be many calling for him to drop out. But, as with the last path, it matters who finishes ahead of and behind Kasich.

If Rubio finishes third again, behind Cruz and Trump, Kasich might argue that there's still a fight to be had for the establishment vote. And if Kasich finishes ahead of Bush and Christie, he can argue that he's the one best positioned to lead that charge.

Even so, this is a tough sell to the donors Kasich will need to keep his campaign afloat financially through South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states that vote March 1.

Path 4: Fifth place or worse.

This would be game over for Kasich, the point at which it likely would register to him that there's little point in continuing. It also would prove that his message of compassion and pragmatism over anger and gridlock was poorly timed to this electoral climate.

Conceivably, Kasich could stick around as long as he can afford a plane ticket. He very much would like to make it to Ohio's March 15 primary, where a pile of delegates could give him some clout in the event of a contested convention this summer in Cleveland.

But Kasich doesn't sound eager for such an exercise.

"If I get smoked," he says often on the New Hampshire trail, "I'm going home."

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